亞馬遜收購Anthropic,意在切斷英偉達的晶片壟斷

BImpact發表於2023-10-08

亞馬遜收購Anthropic,意在切斷英偉達的晶片壟斷

原文作者:Kate Clark,Anissa Gardizy and Stephanie Palazzolo 編輯:阿a,注: 在這篇文章中我們使用了Notion AI進行翻譯 

據三位直接知情人士透露,在亞馬遜上週承諾向該公司投資12.5億美元后,OpenAI的主要競爭對手之一Anthropic正在與投資者談判,以籌集至少20億美元的新資金。其中兩人表示,Anthropic告訴投資者,谷歌在2022年購買了這家初創公司約10%的股份,預計將投資這一輪。 

據其中一人稱,這家成立兩年的初創公司出售與OpenAI的ChatGPT競爭的聊天機器人Claude,其估值在200億至300億美元之間,包括新投資。這將使該公司自3月以來的估值增加五倍,當時投資者對該公司定價40億美元,並使其股票在收入估值倍數方面遠高於OpenAI的股價。 

要點 ‍ 

• Anthropic正在與競爭對手OpenAI進行衡量 

• Anthropic的收入是OpenAI的十分之一 

• 投資者一直願意為人工智慧初創股票支付高價 

這一輪尚未敲定,交易條款可能會發生變化。一位瞭解籌款工作的人表示,Anthropic也在與主權財富基金和其他機構投資者交談。Anthropic的發言人沒有立即發表評論。 

此舉表明,領先的人工智慧開發人員如何競相獲得儘可能多的資本和計算資源,以開發下一代軟體,即大型語言模型。人工智慧開發特別昂貴,因為它需要專門的伺服器晶片,比處理傳統計算工作的處理器需要更多的功率。與此同時,私人投資者一直願意為領先的人工智慧開發人員的股票承受更高的價格。 

在OpenAI與今年早些時候為這家初創公司投入超過100億美元資金的主要雲伺服器提供商微軟結盟後,其他獨立的人工智慧模型開發人員,如Anthropic,也試圖找到自己的計算捐助者。這促使Anthropic最初達成協議,使用谷歌雲和搜尋公司的投資,Cohere與甲骨文的合作,以及Inflection AI從微軟和AI晶片設計師Nvidia等公司籌集的資本。 

除了計算資源外,這些初創公司還指望雲提供商幫助向客戶銷售他們的人工智慧軟體。他們希望追隨OpenAI的腳步,OpenAI最近正準備每年創造超過10億美元的收入,部分原因是其軟體透過微軟的雲部門銷售。 

兩位直接知情人士表示,Anthropic告訴一些投資者,它一直在以1億美元的年化率創造收入,這意味著它每月創造了超過800萬美元的收入。這意味著對Anthropic的投資估值為200億美元,未來收入的估值倍數將達到200倍,遠高於OpenAI的估值倍數。 

收入希望

其中一位知情人士說,Anthropic預計,到今年年底,公司的年化營收將達到2億美元,這意味著每月營收將接近1700萬美元。此人說,到2024年底,Anthropic希望每月收入超過4,000萬美元,年化收入達到5億美元。Anthropic最近與亞馬遜(Amazon)達成協議,後者將向雲客戶出售該初創公司的人工智慧軟體,這是該公司預計增長的一個關鍵原因。亞馬遜表示,包括研究提供商LexisNexis、資產管理公司Bridgewater Associates和旅遊出版商Lonely Planet在內的客戶都在透過亞馬遜網路服務使用Claude。 

Anthropic的人工智慧軟體被認為是新興行業中最好的軟體之一,該公司長期以來一直與OpenAI相比,OpenAI在今年早些時候的員工股票銷售中價值約為270億美元。據一位知情人士透露,OpenAI希望以更高的估值再次出售員工股票。據《華爾街日報》報導,OpenAI的目標是股價,這意味著該公司的估值至少為800億美元。 

以這個價格,OpenAI投資者將支付大約80倍於收入的估值倍,遠高於公共科技股的估值。 

投資者也會收購一傢俱有不同尋常公司結構的公司。Anthropic成立於2021年,擁有一個由五名個人組成的獨立機構,在公司中沒有財務股份,可以選舉和罷免一些Anthropic的董事會成員。Anthropic表示,該集團旨在使Anthropic的目標與公眾的利益保持一致。 

AWS的理由

儘管如此,雲提供商有很多理由收購Anthropic。上週,一直在努力為雲客戶開發自己的人工智慧產品的亞馬遜表示,Anthropic將使用AWS的伺服器開發人工智慧。亞馬遜表示,除了最初的12.5億美元外,它可能會額外提供27.5億美元的資金,該資金的形式是可轉換,當Anthropic籌集更多資金時,該債券將變成股票。 

亞馬遜與Anthropic的交易還有另一個原因。亞馬遜開發了特殊的伺服器晶片Trainium和Inferentia,以推動人工智慧開發,並希望更多的雲客戶使用這些晶片,而不是Nvidia的圖形處理單元,後者一直供不應求。作為亞馬遜-Anthropic交易的一部分,Anthropic同意使用亞馬遜的晶片。AWS是英偉達晶片的最大買家之一,但隨著英偉達開發自己的雲服務,這些公司越來越不一致。 

如果Anthropic從谷歌籌集更多資金,這將引發人們對這家初創公司計劃如何在兩家競爭對手雲提供商之間瓜分效忠的問題。谷歌有自己的人工智慧模型,並計劃將其出售給雲客戶,而AWS沒有相同的內部人工智慧口徑,因此它需要與Anthropic等公司合作和銷售軟體。(AWS最近向所有客戶提供了自己的Titan LLM。) 

雖然Anthropic、OpenAI和Google開發的LLM遠非完美,但它們已經展示了幫助軟體開發人員更快地編寫程式碼的能力,並幫助業務經理總結文件或自動生成廣告和其他營銷內容。一些LLM開發人員開始將該技術稱為下一個軟體作業系統,因為模型能夠編寫和執行程式碼、訪問網際網路以及檢索和引用檔案。 

不包括最新的亞馬遜投資,Anthropic已經從包括Spark Capital和Salesforce Ventures在內的投資者那裡籌集了超過11億美元的資金。據彭博社報導,2022年4月,這家LLM開發商還在現在破產的加密交易所FTX的創始人兼執行長Sam Bankman-Fried的帶領下籌集了5.8億美元。據彭博社報導,FTX此後停止了出售其Anthropic股份。 

Kate Clark是The Information負責風險資本覆蓋的副局長。她是《Dealmaker》的作者,這是一篇關於VC的每週專欄。她住在紐約,可以在推特上找到@KateClarkTweets。您可以透過訊號+1(415)-409-9095與她聯絡。 

Anissa Gardizy是The Information報導雲端計算的記者。她之前是《波士頓環球報》的科技記者。Anissa位於舊金山,可以透過anissa@theinformation.com或推特@anissagardizy8聯絡 

Stephanie Palazzolo是The Information報導人工智慧的記者。她之前曾在Insider和摩根士丹利工作。總部位於紐約,可以透過stephanie@theinformation.com或推特@steph_palazzolo與她聯絡。 

Anthropic, one of the main rivals of OpenAI, is in talks with investors to raise at least $2 billion in new funding, following a commitment from Amazon last week to invest $1.25 billion in the company, according to three people with direct knowledge. Anthropic has told investors that Google, which bought a roughly 10% stake in the startup in 2022, is expected to invest in the round, two of the people said. 

The 2-year-old startup, which sells Claude, a chatbot that competes with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, wants a valuation between $20 billion to $30 billion including the new investment, according to one of those people. That would quintuple the valuation of the company since March, when investors put a $4 billion price tag on the firm, and make its shares far pricier than those of OpenAI in terms of its valuation multiple on revenue. 

THE TAKEAWAY 

• Anthropic is measuring itself against rival OpenAI 

• Anthropic generates one-tenth the revenue of OpenAI 

• Investors have been willing to pay high prices for AI startup shares 

The round is not finalized and terms of the deal could change. One of the people with knowledge of the fundraising effort said Anthropic is also talking to sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors. Spokespeople for Anthropic didn't immediately comment. 

The move shows how the leading developers of artificial intelligence are racing to secure as much capital and computing resources as possible to develop the next generation of their software, known as large language models. AI development is particularly expensive because it requires specialized server chips that require more power than processors that handle traditional computing work. Private investors, meanwhile, have been willing to stomach ever-higher prices for shares of leading AI developers. 

After OpenAI aligned itself with Microsoft, a major cloud server provider that committed more than $10 billion in funding for the startup earlier this year, other independent AI model developers such as Anthropic have sought to find their own computing benefactors. That prompted Anthropic’s initial pact to use Google Cloud and an investment from the search company, Cohere’s partnership with Oracle, and Inflection AI’s capital raise from Microsoft and AI chip designer Nvidia, among others. 

In addition to computing resources, the startups are counting on the cloud providers to help sell their AI software to customers. They hope to follow in the footsteps of OpenAI, which was recently on pace to generate more than $1 billion in revenue annually, boosted in part by sales of its software through Microsoft’s cloud unit. 

Anthropic has told some investors it has been generating revenue at a $100 million annualized rate, implying it has generated more than $8 million in revenue per month, said two people with direct knowledge. That would mean an investment in Anthropic at a valuation of $20 billion would carry a valuation multiple on future revenue of 200 times, far more expensive than OpenAI’s valuation multiple. 

Revenue Hopes 

By the end of this year, Anthropic projected it would generate revenue at a $200 million annualized pace, implying nearly $17 million in monthly revenue, one of the people said. And by the end of 2024, Anthropic hopes to generate more than $40 million in monthly revenue, a $500 million annualized rate, this person said. Anthropic’s recent deal with Amazon, in which the cloud provider will sell the startup’s AI software to cloud customers, is a key reason for the projected growth. Amazon has said customers including research provider LexisNexis, asset management firm Bridgewater Associates, and travel publisher Lonely Planet were using Claude through Amazon Web Services. 

Anthropic’s AI software is considered among the best in the nascent industry and the company has long measured itself against OpenAI, which was valued at about $27 billion in an employee share sale earlier this year. OpenAI is looking to sell employee shares again at a much higher valuation, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. OpenAI is targeting a share price that implies a valuation of at least $80 billion for the company, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

At that price, OpenAI investors would be paying a valuation multiple of around 80 times revenue, far above the valuations of public tech stocks. 

Investors would also be buying into a company with an unusual corporate structure. Anthropic, founded in 2021, has an independent body of five individuals with no financial stake in the company who can elect and remove a number of Anthropic’s board members. Anthropic said this group aims to align Anthropic’s goals with the interests of the general public. 

AWS’ Rationale 

Nonetheless, cloud providers have had plenty of reasons to buy into Anthropic. Last week, Amazon, which had struggled to develop its own AI products for cloud customers, said Anthropic would develop AI using servers from AWS. Amazon said it may provide an additional $2.75 billion in funding on top of the initial $1.25 billion, which came in the form of a convertible note that would turn into stock when Anthropic raises more money. 

Amazon had another reason for its deal with Anthropic. Amazon has developed special server chips, Trainium and Inferentia, to power AI development and has wanted more cloud customers to use those chips rather than Nvidia’s graphics processing units, which have been in short supply. As part of the Amazon-Anthropic deal, Anthropic agreed to use Amazon’s chips. AWS is one of the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips but the companies have increasingly been at odds as Nvidia develops its own cloud service. 

If Anthropic raises more money from Google, it would raise questions about how the startup plans to split its allegiance between the two rival cloud providers. Google has its own AI models and plans to sell them to cloud customers, whereas AWS doesn’t have the same caliber of in-house AI so it has needed to collaborate and sell software from firms such as Anthropic. (AWS recently made its own Titan LLMs available to all its customers.) 

While LLMs developed by Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are far from perfect, they have shown the ability to help software developers code faster and help business managers summarize documents or automatically generate ads and other marketing content. Some LLM developers have begun referring to the technology as the next software operating system because of the models’ ability to write and run code, access the internet and retrieve and reference files. 

Excluding the latest Amazon investment, Anthropic has raised more than $1.1 billion in funding from investors including Spark Capital and Salesforce Ventures. In April 2022, the LLM developer also raised $580 million in a round led by Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of the now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. FTX has since halted the sale of its Anthropic stake, Bloomberg reported. 

Kate Clark is deputy bureau chief responsible for venture capital coverage at The Information. She's the author of Dealmaker, a weekly column on VC. She is based in New York and can be found on Twitter at @KateClarkTweets. You can reach her via Signal at [+1 (415)-409-9095](tel:+1 (415)-409-9095). 

Anissa Gardizy is a reporter at The Information covering cloud computing. She was previously a tech reporter at The Boston Globe. Anissa is based in San Francisco and can be reached at anissa@theinformation.com or on Twitter at @anissagardizy8 

Stephanie Palazzolo is a reporter at The Information covering artificial intelligence. She previously worked at Insider and Morgan Stanley. Based in New York, she can be reached at stephanie@theinformation.com or on Twitter at @steph_palazzolo. 


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