「翻譯」SAP零售預測和補貨–簡要概述（中英文雙語版）

SAP Forecasting and Replenishment for Retail – A short Overview

SAP 零售預測和補貨–簡要概述

 

 

General Objectives and Applicability 總體目標和適用範圍

 

SAP Forecasting and Replenishment (F&R) is a solution which has specifically been created for efficient replenishment of retailers’ stores and distribution centers. Its main goal is to simultaneously reduce inventories while optimizing actual service levels.

SAP Forecasting and Replenishment （F&R）是專門為零售商門店和配送中心的高效補貨而建立的解決方案。其主要目標是在提升服務質量的同時減少庫存。

 

SAP F&R focuses on products which are replenished on a regular base from external and/or internal vendors. The solution is built to manage even more complex products which are affected by trends, seasons, seasonality, price changes and/or promotions.

SAP F&R 專注於由外部供應商和/或內部供應商定期補貨的商品。該解決方案旨在管理受趨勢、季節、季節性、價格變化和/或促銷影響的更復雜的商品。

 

As a basic requirement products need to have a measurable and repeated sales history as well as up-to-date stock information. 作為一項基本要求，商品需要具有可測量和重複的銷售歷史以及最新的庫存資訊。

 

 

 

Process Overview 過程概述

 

The business process begins with the evaluation of future demand of customers, and then of stores and DC, which needs to be fulfilled. This demand determination considers the effect of upcoming events on the demand of the different products, such as promotions or seasonality. The demand is then opposed to the anticipated in-stock positions in order to determine whether these are sufficient to meet the demand. If not enough inventory will be available, an order needs to be placed to cover the gap between supply and demand. While building an order different constraints have to be considered, such as vendor minimums, pack size requirements or truck load restrictions like weight or volume. 業務流程首先評估客戶的未來需求，然後評估需要滿足的門店和DC。該需求確定考慮了即將到來的事件對不同商品需求的影響，如促銷或季節性。然後將需求與預期的庫存頭寸相對，以確定這些頭寸是否足以滿足需求。如果沒有足夠的庫存，則需要下訂單以彌補供需缺口。在建立訂單時，必須考慮不同的限制，如供應商最低要求、包裝尺寸要求或卡車裝載限制，如重量或體積。

 

Orders might need specific approval before being transmitted to the respective vendor. 訂單在傳送給相應的供應商之前可能需要得到批准。

 

In parallel, many vendors expect retailers to provide them with forecasts of the order volumes expected for the future to allow for a better planning of their own supply chain and production capacities. 同時，許多供應商希望零售商向他們提供未來預期訂單量的預測，以便更好地規劃自己的供應鏈和生產能力。

 

From a system perspective the process flow works as follows: 從系統角度來看，業務流程如下所示：

 

The process begins with the transfer of data into SAP F&R which are needed to run the forecasting and replenishment processes. Once the data are updated and available, forecasting and replenishment calculations run automatically: 該流程從將資料傳輸到SAP F&R開始，這些資料是SAP F&R執行預測和補貨所需要的。一旦資料被更新並可用後，預測和補貨計算將自動執行：

 

First, the forecast is calculated. On this basis requirements calculation starts and issues net requirements which are then optimized. The results from this step are optimized order proposals, and, possibly, also alerts (called “exceptions”). 首先，計算預測。在此基礎上，開始需求計算併發布淨需求，然後對其進行優化。此步驟的結果是優化的訂貨建議，可能還有警報（稱為“例外”）。

 

Order proposals are processed in the order proposal release management where they are either released or forwarded to exception handling or the manual release processes. 訂貨建議書在訂貨建議下達管理中進行處理，它們要麼被下達，要麼會被轉發至異常處理或手動下達流程。

 

- Exceptions trigger the user, such as replenishment analysts, to look closer at the areas indicated. 異常會觸發使用者（如補貨分析師）更仔細地檢視相應資料。

- Released order proposals are transferred to the purchasing system, for example SAP Retail, where they are automatically converted in valid orders and transmitted to the respective supplier. 已下達的訂貨建議會被傳輸到採購系統，例如SAP Retail，在那裡它們會被自動轉換為有效的採購訂單並傳輸到相應的供應商。

 

In addition, SAP F&R provides data for vendor collaboration: Sales, sales forecast and even order forecast can be shared with the respective vendor for a better planning of the supply chain. 此外，SAP F&R還為供應商協作提供資料：銷售、銷售預測甚至訂單預測可與相應供應商共享，以更好地規劃供應鏈。

 

SAP Business Warehouse has been furnished with content for SAP F&R analytics. Different information from SAP F&R can be transferred in to SAP BW to allow for a monitoring of the overall processes and KPI as well as of the quality of the solution implementation.

SAP Business Warehouse 已提供SAP F&R 分析的內容。SAP F&R的不同資訊可以傳輸到SAP BW，以便監控整個流程和KPI以及解決方案實施的質量。

 

 

 

Detailed Process Description 詳細過程描述

 

Provision of Master Data and Transactional Data 提供主資料和交易資料

 

The data relevant to the calculations need to be imported into SAP F&R from the leading master and transactional data systems. These data can stem from multiple systems. They have to be provided to SAP F&R in time for the calculations to start. 與計算相關的資料需要從主要的主資料和事務資料系統匯入SAP F&R。這些資料可以來自多個系統，它們必須及時將其提供給SAP F&R，以便開始計算。

 

Relevant data are (amongst others): 相關資料包括（除其他外）：

- Master data, such as products, locations, supply relationships, scheduling information, product hierarchies 主資料，如商品、位置、供應關係、排程資訊、商品層次等

- Sales / goods issue data 銷售/發貨資料

- On-hand stock positions 現有庫存頭寸

- On-order stock positions 訂單庫存頭寸

- Demand influencing factors, such as promotions, holidays, price changes. 需求影響因素，如促銷、節假日、價格變動等。

 

 

Maintaining Parameters 維護引數

 

Parameters are like additional attributes to the master data controlling the detailed aspects of the processes. The planned delivery time for example is a simple parameter. 維護引數類似於主資料的附加屬性，控制流程的方方面面的細節。例如，計劃交貨時間是一個簡單的引數。

 

Manual changes of SAP F&R parameters are made based on results of analytical reports, exception reporting or business experience and user judgment. SAP F&R 引數的手動更改基於分析報告結果、異常報告或業務經驗以及使用者判斷。

 

SAP F&R allows for different modes of parameter maintenance: Parameters can either be sent from an external system by interface, or preset in the interface (usage of default values/default profiles), or manually maintained within SAP F&R. It is possible to specify within the solution which parameters must not be overwritten by inbound interfaces. SAP F&R 允許不同的引數維護模式：引數可以通過介面從外部系統傳送，也可以在介面中預設（使用預設值/預設引數檔案），或者在SAP F&R中手動維護。可以在解決方案中指定哪些引數不能被入站介面所覆蓋。

 

For an easier maintenance the usage of profiles is enabled in the solution wherever it makes sense. Profiles are sets of parameters within one specific process area, for example a “forecasting profile” bundles parameters concerning the forecast calculation. These profiles need to be maintained only once and can then be assigned to all suitable master data elements, e.g. location products. 為了便於維護，在解決方案中，必要時都會啟用引數檔案。引數檔案是一個特定處理領域的引數集，例如“預測引數檔案”捆綁了與預測計算有關的引數。這些配置檔案只需維護一次，然後可以分配給所有合適的主資料，例如商品。

 

For time-efficient manual assignment of profiles mass maintenance tools are provided within SAP F&R. SAP F&R 中提供了批量維護工具，以便及時高效地手動分配引數檔案。

 

Within SAP F&R many parameters can also be maintained in a time-phased manner. This allows setting of future values/assignments as well as automated consideration of new parameter values by the system once a specific point in time is reached. A centralized customizing for all parameter settings and definitions, which do not change frequently, is offered. 在SAP F&R中，許多引數也可以分時間段進行維護。這允許設定未來值/分配，以及在到了指定的時間點後系統自動考慮新引數值。這能為所有不常改動的引數設定以及定義提供集中式的定製功能。

 

 

Forecast Calculation 預測計算

 

A broad range of statistical methods and algorithms are available. They are applied fully automatically and individually per each product/location combination based on different characteristics - and this per each forecast calculation run. For example based on the sales velocity of a product, which may change over time, the appropriate forecast model and parameter settings will be selected automatically. 有多種統計方法和演算法可用。基於不同的特徵，它們會完全自動地、單獨地應用於每個商品/位置組合，並在每次預測計算執行時應用。例如，根據商品的銷售速度（可能隨時間變化），將自動選擇適當的預測模型和引數設定。

 

The forecasting calculation is done fully automated and no manual profiling is necessary. Sales or consumption history is evaluated and extrapolated into the future while automatically considering 預測計算完全自動化，無需手動分析。對銷售或消費歷史進行評估並推斷到未來，同時自動考慮：

- Trends 趨勢

- Seasons and seasonal pattern 季節和季節模式

- Past and future demand influencing factors (DIF) such as price changes, promotions, holidays, emergency situations such as hurricanes. 過去和未來的需求影響因素（DIF），如價格變化、促銷、假期、颶風等緊急情況。

- Related products (e.g. cannibalization or HALO effects). 相關商品（例如，配件拆用或光環效應）。

 

 

Safety amounts are calculated within this step according to a very flexible safety stock policy. 根據非常靈活的安全庫存政策，在此步驟中計算安全數量。

 

 

 

Requirements Quantity Calculation 需求量計算

 

Net requirements are calculated based on (amongst others): 淨需求基於如下資訊計算：

- Future demand calculated in the forecast module 在預測模組中計算的未來需求

- On-hand stock projections 現有庫存預測

- Order and delivery cycles 訂單和交付週期

- Fixed or dynamic target stock 固定或動態目標庫存

- Fixed or dynamic presentation stock requirements. 固定或動態的庫存需求。

 

 

Pre-allocation capabilities allow building up stock earlier than it would be usually done: In specific situations, typically promotions or Christmas, the demand of some products is extremely high compared to their regular demand. The impact on logistic resources and capacities may be so heavy that the work load must be distributed over multiple weeks. An advanced option for supplying locations like DC consists in basing the requirements quantity calculation on an aggregated store order forecast instead of using a DC-own forecast. 預分配功能允許提前建立庫存：在特定情況下，通常是促銷或聖誕節，與常規需求相比，某些商品的需求非常高。對後勤資源和能力的影響可能非常大，因此工作負荷必須在數週內進行分配。對於像DC這樣的供應地點，一個更高階的選項是根據彙總的門店訂單預測計算需求數量，而不是使用DC自己的預測。

 

This technique is called multiechelon replenishment. It basically generates an order forecast on store level for every single product location combination and rolls it up to the level of the supplying DC.

這種技術稱為多級補貨。它基本上為每個商品/位置組合生成門店級別的訂單預測，並將其彙總到負責供應的DC。

 

This allows for a most precise consideration of future demand occurring against the DC as it automatically includes information about upcoming store sales uplifts (e.g. due to promotions), pack size, scheduling and – partially - optimization. 這允許對DC的未來需求進行最精確的考慮，因為它自動包含即將到來的門店銷售提升（例如，由於促銷）、包裝尺寸、日程安排和部分優化的資訊。

 

 

Requirements Quantity Optimization 需求量優化

 

Within this step net requirements are combined to order proposals and optimized according to defined rules. 在此步驟中，將淨需求合併到訂貨建議中，並根據定義好的規則進行優化。

 

An order proposal is defined as the combination of products and quantities for a receiving location and a specific (internal or external) supplier and for a defined delivery date. 訂貨建議定義為接收地點和特定（內部或外部）供應商以及規定交付日期的商品和數量的組合。

 

Although the results of the requirements quantity calculation includes already some optimization functionality (e.g. safety stocks or dynamic presentation stocks), additional optimization requirements need being considered. 儘管需求數量計算的結果已經包括了一些優化功能（例如安全庫存或動態庫存），但還需要考慮其他優化需求。

 

Further optimization steps can include simple pack size rounding or matching order proposals against vendor minimums; but they can also include more complex optimization scenarios such as truck load building or Economic Order Quantity, where ordering cost are balanced with the cost of capital tied-up in inventories. 進一步的優化步驟可包括簡單的包裝尺寸取整或根據供應商最低要求匹配訂貨建議；但它們也可以包括更復雜的優化場景，如卡車裝載量或經濟訂單數量，其中訂單成本與庫存中佔用的資本成本相平衡。

 

 

 

Exception Management / Manual Release 異常管理/手動下達

 

Exception handling covers the main point of interaction of a replenishment analyst with the SAP F&R system. The replenishment analyst reviews and adjusts the results of SAP F&R mainly triggered by exceptions rather than reviewing all results SAP F&R generates. 異常處理涵蓋了補貨分析員與SAP F&R系統互動的要點。補貨分析員審查和調整SAP F&R的結果，這些結果主要由異常觸發，而不是審查SAP F&R生成的所有結果。

 

The system can be configured to issue exceptions based on the following main processes: 系統可配置為基於以下主要流程來觸發異常：

 

Connectivity, automated forecast and replenishment calculations, order proposal release management. Exceptions can be of a more technical nature like when indicating missing stock updates or inconsistent master data. Exceptions can also be related to business reasons such as exceptions on order proposal (items) which may deal with reasons why an order proposal needs review, e.g. purchase order value or order proposals of new vendors. The solution can be configured in a way that order proposals which fulfill certain conditions or bear a certain exception need to be released manually. 連通性、自動預測和補貨計算、訂貨建議下達管理。例外情況可能更具技術性，如指示缺少庫存更新或主資料不一致時。例外情況也可能與業務原因有關，例如訂貨建議（行專案）的例外情況，可能涉及訂貨建議需要審查的原因，例如採購訂單價值或新供應商的訂貨建議。解決方案可以被配置成這樣的方式：滿足特定條件或帶有特定異常的訂貨建議需要手動下達。

 

 

 

Order Proposal Release Management 訂貨建議下達管理

 

SAP F&R’s order proposal release management is a process in which order proposals are either automatically released for transfer into the purchasing solution or automatically marked for manual release. SAP F&R 的訂貨建議下達管理是一個流程，在該流程中，訂貨建議要麼自動下達以轉入到採購解決方案中，要麼自動標記為手動下達。

 

The solution offers a wide array of options to create release strategies which define under which circumstances an order proposal must not be released. Release strategies can contain different rules and restrictions, such as maximum or minimum rules based on specific values or quantities. They can be applied on different levels, e.g. on level of a product and/or a location. 該解決方案提供了一系列選項來建立下達策略，這些策略定義了在何種情況下不得下達訂貨建議。下達策略可以包含不同的規則和限制，例如基於特定值或數量的最大或最小規則。它們可以應用於不同層級，例如商品層級和/或位置層級。

 

Also, exceptions can be configured in a way that they prevent an order proposal from being automatically released. 此外，可以配置異常，以防止訂貨建議被自動下達。

 

 

 

Manual Replenishment 人工補貨

 

SAP F&R contains different tools or workbenches to support the manual replenishment processes: SAP F&R 包含支援手動補貨流程的不同工具或工作臺：

 

The replenishment workbench allows the replenishment analyst to review, create, alter, delete, copy, group or split order proposals in many ways.

Replenishment workbench 允許補貨分析師以多種方式審查、建立、更改、刪除、複製、分組或拆分訂貨建議。

 

The product workbench contains useful functionality for the replenishment analyst to review products – and alter/create order proposal items - based on different criteria, e.g. products with their delivery date overdue, or products with unexpected sales troughs.

Product workbench 包含有用的功能，可供補貨分析師根據不同的標準審查商品，並更改/建立訂貨建議行專案，例如交貨日期過期的商品，或出現意外銷售低谷的商品。

 

The exception workbench provides the replenishment analyst and other users with information on exceptional situations which need to be solved. Every user can subscribe to specific types of exceptions and data subsets he is responsible for.  

Exception workbench 為補貨分析師和其他使用者提供有關需要解決的異常情況的資訊。每個使用者都可以訂閱他負責的特定型別的異常和資料子集。

 

Cause determination provides an aggregated view of all information concerning a specific location product for an in-depth analysis. Information provided are (amongst others) master data, time series (such as forecast, sales), exceptions.

Cause determination 提供有關特定位置商品的所有資訊的彙總檢視，以進行深入分析。提供的資訊包括（除其他外）主資料、時間序列（如預測、銷售）、例外情況。

 

 

 

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment (CPFR) 協作計劃、預測和補貨（CPFR）

 

SAP F&R supports parts of the CPFR process. CPFR as defined by the Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association “is a business practice that combines the intelligence of of multiple trading partners in the planning and fulfillment of customer demand.” (see ).

SAP F&R 支援部分CPFR流程。Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association定義的CPFR“是一種商業實踐，將多個貿易伙伴的智慧結合在一起，做計劃和滿足客戶需求”（參見 )。

 

SAP F&R supports this process by creation of both a demand and an order forecast, and allowing the retailer to share this data with defined vendors by providing a function module which can easily be called via RFC.

SAP F&R 通過建立需求和訂單預測來支援此流程，提供由RFC呼叫的功能模組，以允許零售商與供應商共享這些資料。

 

 

 

SAP F&R Analytics SAP F&R 分析

 

SAP F&R provides standard content in SAP Business Warehouse (BW) to monitor the quality of the processes and of the solution implementation. SAP F&R exports information into SAP BW on a regular base where it is kept over long periods of time and available for different views – from highly aggregated views drill down into the most detailed views is offered.

SAP F&R 在SAP Business Warehouse（BW）中提供標準內容，以監控流程和解決方案實施的質量。SAP F&R定期將資訊匯出到SAP BW中，並長期儲存，可用於不同的檢視—從高度聚合的檢視下鑽最詳細的檢視。

 

The following standard queries are delivered: 提供以下標準查詢：

- History of manually changed order proposals 手工更改訂貨建議的歷史記錄

- Order proposal level of automation report 訂貨建議自動報表

- Forecast quality 預測質量

- Range of coverage development 發展覆蓋範圍

- Overstocks 積壓

- Understocks 庫存不足

- Stockouts and undelivered products 缺貨和未交付商品

- Stockouts and lost sales 缺貨和銷售損失

- Number of stock exceptions 庫存例外的數量

- Weekly service level development 每週服務級別開發

- Gross margin return on investment report 毛利率投資回報報表

- Replenishment exceptions 補貨例外

- Dead stock report 呆滯庫存報告

- Variances of dynamic versus static minimum stock 動態與靜態最小庫存的方差

 

 

With the use of SAP BW many other additional analysis and reports can be generated using the information collected from SAP F&R. 通過使用SAP BW，可以使用從SAP F&R收集的資訊生成許多其他分析和報表。

 

 

 

Related Content 相關內容

 

SAP F&R Wiki:

 

SAP Retail Wiki:

 

SAP Retail Homepage:

 

For more information, visit the

 

 

 

 

- 完-

 

2021-9-23 翻譯於住處。