牛年最後一個交易日，滬指早盤探底回升，午後再度衝高回落，一度跌逾1%；深成指盤中一度拉昇，尾盤迴落走低；創業板指盤中一度大漲近2%，尾盤跌幅明顯收窄。截至收盤，滬指跌0.97%報3361.44點，深成指跌0.53%報13328.06點，創業板指漲0.07%報2908.94.點；兩市合計成交8189億元。今日為1月份最後一個交易日，從月線來看，滬指1月下跌7.65%，深成指下跌10.29%，創業板指下跌12.45%。

對於即將到來的節後市場，渤海證券指出，我們回顧了近10年春節前後市場的表現，在1月到春節前的區間裡，上證指數、創業板指同步調整的機率不高，只發生過兩次，對應的節後市場都出現一定行情。對於創業板指而言，近十年春節後上漲的機率較高，只要節前不出現明顯獨立於市場的上漲，節後就存在博弈的空間。因此總體來看，對於節後行情相對樂觀，投資者應積極佈局，迎接節後行情。

第一，目前市場調整幅度已經較為充分。我們統計了2010年以來歷次大跌調整的持續時間的累計跌幅，以此次調整跌幅較大的創業板指為例，從2021年12月14日到2022年1月27日，創業板指累計下跌16.9%，從下跌持續的時間以及下跌幅度來看，已經接近歷次大跌調整的平均水平。

第二，當前各項政策措施和環境均對市場非常友好。貨幣政策上，人民銀行保持流動性合理充裕，引導金融機構有力擴大信貸投放，繼續降低企業特別是中小微企業融資成本。財政政策上，要適度超前進行基礎設施建設，同時實施好規模性組合式減稅降費政策。與此同時，在近日市場大幅調整中，我們看到多家基金公司公告，將使用自有資金購買旗下基金產品，並承諾較長時間的持有期。

第三，從統計規律來看，A股市場2月份上漲的概率很大。A股市場中所謂的“春季躁動”行情，實際上就是2月行情，從2000年到2021年這22年中，2月份Wind全A指數上漲的概率高達77%，是所有月份中上漲概率最大的月份。這背後一方面是因為2月份市場流動性環境比較寬鬆，另一方面也反映了市場對之後3月份兩會的政策預期。在2022年1月份市場已經出現較大調整幅度的情況下，後續的行情更加值得期待。

國泰君安(17.630, -0.47, -2.60%)證券表示，堅定信心，樂觀看待A股節後行情。分母端負面衝擊密集，分子端信心不足，疊加節前交易層面擾動，節前市場持續調整。展望春節後，1）積極因素將逐步向上修正。市場在經歷了近幾年的地產信用風險、地方隱債問題後，對穩增長難免存在遲疑。但當前地方兩會相繼召開，“穩”字當頭，穩增長政策將加速推進與發力，年後無需對分子端過度悲觀。2）負向因素將加速收斂。當前市場正對海外流動性預期變化逐步定價，年前海外流動性預期負面影響正被加速消化，同時年後地產信用風險亦將逐步落地，分母端負面因素加速收斂。近期投資者短期風險偏好已處較低水平，繼續向下空間有限。3）此外從日曆效應來看，亦能觀察到歷年春節後市場的表現要明顯好於春節前。綜合來看，春節後市場有望逐步回溫。

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A股市場中所謂的“春季躁動”行情，實際上就是2月行情

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