春節期間“持股”還是“持幣”？2008年金融危機後，過去十幾年的歷史資料顯示，A股春節前後的走勢反轉概率較高。

一旦春節前大跌的話，往往2月到4月才是真正春季行情的全面開啟。2019年、2016年、2015年、2012年、2011年、2010年的春節前後都有類似情況，春季行情漲勢都持續到4月清明節之後，甚至在2016年和2019年，是新一輪持續兩年結構性牛市的開啟。

對部分資深投資者來說，印象最深的春節前大跌，其實並非當前的2022年，而是2016年開始的“熔斷”行情，2016年和2022年春節前後的類似之處在於：2015年12月美聯儲啟動了首次加息，而2022年美聯儲不斷釋放收緊貨幣的訊號，市場預期年內加息幅度較大，這引發全球市場調整。

信達證券表示，性反彈將會出現在春節後，2月年報和一季報業績集中兌現還未來臨，對半導體、新能源等賽道2022年業績的擔心會暫時告一段落。同時，春節後到3月是歷年居民資金活躍確定性最高的時間。

三大指數集體低開，隨後持續震盪走低，創業板指，深成指均跌超1%，滬指跟隨下行。板塊方面，新冠檢測、新冠特效藥板塊現跌停潮 。總體而言，個股呈普跌態勢，兩市超3300股飄綠，賺錢效應較弱

為何指數遲遲未有良好的表現呢？首先，去年四季度以來，美聯儲加息和縮表提速的預期還是令市場承壓的，海外市場整體下行對市場拖累。尤其是成長股，實際上整體表現不佳；另一方面，市場風格在持續轉化，尤其是高估值向低估值轉向不斷，結構性行情突出；此外，資金觀望情緒較重，在春節前夕流動性緊張也是規律，而一季度專項債提前開始發行的情形下，市場流動性還面臨一定程度的緊張局面。

不過，這種局面已經在改變的過程中。畢竟，經濟階段回升下，企業盈利提升有預期。而流動性寬鬆預期增強下，市場的流動性將逐步釋放，給市場帶來提振。春季行情整體向好的邏輯沒有發生改變。

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