（翻譯）2016美國數學建模MCM D題 翻譯:測量協會資訊網路的演變和影響

PROBLEM D:Measuring the Evolution and Influence in Society’s Information Networks 

Information is spread quickly in today’s tech-connected communications network; sometimes it is due to the inherent value of the information itself, and other times it is due to the information finding its way to influential or central network nodes that accelerate its spread through social media. While content has varied -- in the 1800s, news was more about local events (e.g., weddings, storms, deaths) rather than viral videos of cats or social lives of entertainers -- the prevailing premise is that this cultural characteristic to share information (both serious and trivial) has always been there. However, the flow of information has never been as easy or wide-ranging as it is today, allowing news of various levels of importance to spread quickly across the globe in our tech connected world. By taking a historical perspective of flow of information relative to inherent value of information, the Institute of Communication Media (ICM) seeks to understand the evolution of the methodology, purpose, and functionality of society’s networks. Specifically, your team, as part of ICM’s Information Analytics Division, has been assigned to analyze the relationship between speed/flow of information vs inherent value of information based on consideration of 5 periods: in the 1870s, when newspapers were delivered by trains and stories were passed by telegraph; in the 1920s, when radios became a more common household item; in the 1970s, when televisions were in most homes; in the 1990s, when households began connecting to the early internet; in the 2010s, when we can carry a connection to the world on our phones. Your supervisor reminds you to be sure to report the assumptions you make and the data you use to build your models.

Your specific tasks are:

(a) Develop one or more model(s) that allow(s) you to explore the flow of information and filter or find what qualifies as news.

(b) Validate your model’s reliability by using data from the past and the prediction capability of your model to predict the information communication situation for today and compare that with today’s reality.

(c) Use your model to predict the communication networks’ relationships and capacities around the year 2050.

(d) Use the theories and concepts of information influence on networks to model how public interest and opinion can be changed through information networks in today’s connected world.

(e) Determine how information value, people’s initial opinion and bias, form of the message or its source, and the topology or strength of the information network in a region, country, or worldwide could be used to spread information and influence public opinion.

Possible Data Sources:

As you develop your model and prepare to test it, you will need to assemble a collection of data. Below are just some examples of the types of data you may find useful in this project. Depending on your exact model, some types of data may be very important and others may be entirely irrelevant. In addition to the sample sources provided below, you might want to consider a few important world events throughout history – if some recent big news events, such as the rumors of country-turned-pop singer Taylor Swift’s possible engagement had instead happened in 1860, what percentage of the population would know about it and how quickly; likewise, if an important person was assassinated today, how would that news spread? How might that compare to the news of US President Abraham Lincoln’s assassination?

Sample Circulation Data and Media Availability:

http://media-cmi.com/downloads/Sixty_Years_Daily_Newspaper_Circulation_Trends_050611.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552410.stm

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2006/01/12104731/6

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427787/are-smart-phones-spreading-faster-than-any-technology-in-human-history/

http://newsroom.fb.com/content/default.aspx?NewsAreaId=22

http://www.poynter.org/news/mediawire/189819/pew-tv-viewing-habit-grays-as-digital-news-consumption-tops-print-radio/

http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/27/section-1-watching-reading-and-listening-to-the-news-3/

http://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-does-false-information-spread-online-25567

Historical Perspectives of News and Media:

https://www.quora.com/How-did-news-get-around-the-world-before-the-invention-of-newspapers-and-other-media

http://2012books.lardbucket.org/books/a-primer-on-communication-studies/s15-media-technology-and-communica.html

http://firstmonday.org/article/view/885/794

Richard Campbell, Christopher R. Martin, and Bettina Fabos, Media & Culture: An Introduction to Mass Communication, 5th ed. (Boston, MA: Bedford St. Martin’s, 2007)

Marshall T. Poe, A History of Communications: Media and Society from the Evolution of Speech to the Internet (New York: Cambridge, 2011)

Shirley Biagi, Media/Impact: An Introduction to Mass Media (Boston, MA: Wadsworth, 2007)

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 20 pages for a maximum of 21 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 20 page limit.

D: 資訊迅速傳播在今天的技術連線的通訊網路;有時是因為資訊本身，而其他時間的內在價值則是由於資訊找到自己的方式，通過社會化媒體加速它的傳播影響力或核心網路節點。雖然內容已經變化 - 在19世紀，新聞是有關本地的事件（例如，婚禮，暴雨，死亡人數），而不是貓或藝人的社會生活的病毒視訊 - 當時的前提是，這種文化特色，以資訊共享（嚴重的和瑣碎的）是一直存在的。然而，資訊的流動從來就不是那麼容易或廣泛的，因為它是今天，讓各級重要的訊息在全球範圍內迅速蔓延在我們的技術連線的世界。通過採取流程相關資訊的歷史的角度對資訊的內在價值，傳播媒體協會（ICM），旨在瞭解的方法，目的，以及社會網路的功能演進。具體來說，你的團隊，為ICM的資料分析部的一部分，已被分配給分析資訊VS的資訊的基礎上考慮的5個週期內在價值的速度/流量之間的關係：在19世紀70年代，當時的報紙是由火車和故事交付通過電報獲得通過;在20世紀20年代，當收音機成為一個更常見的家用物品;在20世紀70年代，當電視是大多數家庭;在上世紀90年代，當家庭開始連線到早期的網際網路;在2010年代的時候，我們可以繼續發展我們的手機走向世界的連線。你的上司提醒您，一定要報告你讓你用它來構建模型的假設和資料。

你的具體任務是：

（一）制定一個或多個模型（S），允許（S）你去探索資訊和過濾流量或找到有資格成為新聞。

（二）通過使用資料從過去和模型的預測能力來預測今天的資訊溝通情況，並比較，與今天的現實驗證模型的可靠性。

（c）使用你的模型來預測2050年各地的通訊網路“的關係和能力。

（d）利用網路上的理論和資訊影響的概念模型如何公眾利益和意見可以通過資訊網路在當今的互聯世界中進行更改。

（五）確定了資訊的價值，人的初步意見和偏見，訊息或它的原始碼形式，以及資訊網路的一個地區，國家的拓撲結構或力量，或全球範圍內可用於傳播資訊和影響公眾輿論。

可能的資料來源：

當你開發你的模型，並準備對其進行測試，你將需要組裝的資料的集合。下面是資料型別只是一些例子，你可能會發現這個專案非常有用。根據您的具體型號，某些型別的資料可能是非常重要的，別人可能完全不相關。除了下面提供的示例源，你可能要在歷史上考慮一些重要的世界事件 - 如果最近的一些重大新聞事件，如國家出身的流行歌手泰勒·斯威夫特的可能訂婚的謠言，而不是發生在1860年，什麼樣的人口比例會知道它的速度有多快;同樣，如果一個重要的人今天被暗殺，如何將這項訊息傳出？怎麼可能會是比較美國總統林肯遇刺的訊息嗎？