[轉載]2016美國數學建模MCM F題（政策）翻譯:難民移入政策建模

ICM: The Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling

美國東部時間2016年1月28日星期四20:00（北京時間2016年1月29日上午9:00）後，可以通過競賽網站檢視賽題。（連結：http://www.comap.com/undergraduate/contests/mcm）

PROBLEM F:Modeling Refugee Immigration Policies 

With hundreds of thousands of refugees moving across Europe and more arriving each day, considerable attention has been given to refugee integration policies and practices in many countries and regions. History has shown us that mass fleeing of populations occur as a result of major political and social unrest and warfare. These crises bring a set of unique challenges that must be managed carefully through effective policies. Events in the Middle East have caused a massive surge of refugees emigrating from the Middle East into safe haven countries in Europe and parts of Asia, often moving through the Mediterranean and into countries such as Turkey, Hungary, Germany, France, and UK. By the end of October 2015, European countries had received over 715,000 asylum applications from refugees. Hungary topped the charts with nearly 1,450 applications per 100,000 inhabitants, but with only a small percentage of those requests granted (32% in 2014), leaving close to a thousand refugees homeless per every 100K residents of the country. Europe has established a quota system where each country has agreed to take in a particular number of refugees, with the majority of the resettlement burden lying with France and Germany.

The refugees travel multiple routes – from the Middle East through (1) West Mediterranean, (2) Central Mediterranean, (3) Eastern Mediterranean, (4) West Balkans, (5) Eastern Borders, and (6) Albania to Greece (See these routes mapped out in http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911). Each route has different levels of safety and accessibility, with the most popular route being Eastern Mediterranean and the most dangerous, Central Mediterranean. Countries that have been burdened the most are concerned about their capacity to provide resources for the refugees such as food, water, shelter, and healthcare. There are numerous factors that determine how the refugees decide to move through the region. Transportation availability, safety of routes and access to basic needs at destination are considered by each individual or family in this enormous migration.

The UN has asked your team, the ICM-RUN (RefUgee aNalytics) to help develop a better understanding of the factors involved with facilitating the movement of refugees from their countries of origin into safe-haven countries.

Your Specific Tasks:

1. Metrics of refugee crises. Determine the specific factors which can either enable or inhibit the safe and efficient movement of refugees. There are attributes of the individuals themselves, the routes they must take, the types of transportation, the countries’ capacity, including number of entry points and resources available to refugee population. This first task requires ICM-RUN to develop a set of measures and parameters and justify why they should be included in the analysis of this crisis.

2. Flow of refugees. Create a model of optimal refugee movement that would incorporate projected flows of refugees across the six travel routes mentioned in the problem, with consideration of transportation routes/accessibility, safety of route and countries’ resource capacities. You can include different routes, different entry points, single or multiple entry points, and even different countries. Use the metrics that you established in Task 1 to determine the number of refugees, as well as the rate and point of entry necessary to accommodate their movement. Be sure to justify

any new elements you have added to the migration and explain the sensitivities of your model to these dynamics.

3. Dynamics of the crisis. Refugee conditions can change rapidly. Refugees seek basic necessities for themselves and their families in the midst of continuously changing political and cultural landscapes. In addition, the capacity to house, protect, and feed this moving population is dynamic in that the most desired destinations will reach maximum capacity the quickest, creating a cascade effect altering the parameters for the patterns of movement. Identify the environmental factors that change over time; and show how capacity can be incorporated into the model to account for these dynamic elements. What resources can be prepositioned and how should they be allocated in light of these dynamics? What resources need priority and how do you incorporate resource availability and flow in your model? Consider the role and resources of both government and non-government agencies (NGOs). How does the inclusion of NGO’s change your model and strategy? Also consider the inclusion of other refugee destinations such as Canada, China, and the United States. Does your model work for these regions as well?

4. Policy to support refugee model. Now that you have a working model, ICM-RUN has been asked to attend a policy strategy meeting where your team is asked to write a report on your model and propose a set of policies that will support the optimal set of conditions ensuring the optimal migration pattern. Your UN commission has asked you to consider and prioritize the health and safety of refugees and of the local populations. You can include as many parameters and considerations as you see fit to help to inform the strategic policy plan, keeping in mind the laws and cultural constraints of the effected countries. Consider also the role and actions of non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

5. Exogenous events. In addition to endogenous systemic dynamics, exogenous events are also highly likely to occur and alter the situation parameters in these volatile environments, For example, a major terrorist attack in Paris, France has been linked to the Syrian refuge crisis, and has resulted in substantial shifts in the attitudes and policies of many European countries with respect to refugees. The event has also raised concerns among local populations. For example, Brussels, Belgium was placed in a lockdown after the Paris raids in attempts to capture possible terrorists.

a) What parameters of the model would likely shift or change completely in a major exogenous event?

b) What would be the cascading effects on the movement of refugees in neighboring countries?

c) How will the immigration policies that you recommend be designed to be resilient to these types of events?

6. Scalability. Using your model, expand the crisis to a larger scale – by a factor of 10. Are there features of your model that are not scalable to larger populations? What parameters in your model change or become irrelevant when the scope of the crisis increases dramatically? Do new parameters need to be added? How does this increase the time required to resolve refugee placement? If resolution of the refugee integration is significantly prolonged, what new issues might arise in maintaining the health and safety of the refugee and local populations? What is the threshold of time where these new considerations are in play? For example, what policies need to be in place to manage issues such as disease control, childbirth, and education?

The Report: The UN Commission on Refugees has asked your ICM-RUN team to provide them a 20-page report that considers the factors given in your tasks. Each team should also write a 1 page policy recommendation letter which will be read by the UN Secretary General and the Chief of Migration.

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet, a 1 page letter to the UN, and your solution (not to exceed 20 pages) for a maximum of 22 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 22 page limit.

The Commission has also provided you with some on-line references that may be helpful:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

http://www.iom.int/

http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90854

http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c4d6.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/world/migrants-refugees-europe-syria.html?_r=0

http://www.who.int/features/qa/88/en/

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/migration-and-health/migrant-health-in-the-european-region/migration-and-health-key-issues

https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/refugees-displaced-persons

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E題:難民移入政策建模

每天成千上萬，甚至更多的難民穿越併到達歐洲，很多國家和地區，對於難民問題的關注已經融入政策和實踐。歷史已經證明，大規模人群逃離會造成重大政治、社會動盪和戰爭。這些危機帶來的一系列挑戰，必須通過有效的政策小心應對。中東事件造成大規模的難民移民從中東到歐洲和亞洲部分地區的安全國家，他們通常穿越地中海進入土耳其、匈牙利、德國、法國和英國等國。到2015年10月底，歐洲國家已經收到超過715000份難民庇護申請。匈牙利每10萬名定居者中，有將近1450份之多的申請，但其中只有一小部分請求通過（2014年32%)，大約每100 K居住者中，有近一千難民無家可歸。歐洲已經建立了一個配額制度，每個國家只收容特定數量的難民，法國和德國承擔了大部分。

難民遷移有多種路線—從中東開始，通過(1)地中海西部（2）地中海中部(3)地中海東部,(4)巴爾幹半島西部（5）東部邊界(6)阿爾巴尼亞到希臘(遷移圖見http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911)。每個路徑都有不同安全和可進入級別，最受歡迎的路線是地中海東部，最危險的是地中海中部。對相關國家造成的最大負擔就是他們為難民提供資源的能力，如食物、水、避難所和醫療。有很多因素決定難民的遷移方式，交通有效性、路線安全性和在目的地基本需求得到滿足，是個人或家庭在這次大規模遷移中考慮的因素。

聯合國要求你的團隊ICM-RUN（難民分析）幫助建立一個，在促進難民從原籍國到安全避難國家移動方面，更好地理解所涉及各項因素的模型。

 

你們的任務是

1.衡量難民危機。確定可以實現或抑制難民安全、高效流動的因素，包括個人本身的特性，他們必須採用的路線，交通型別，國家能力（包括難民入境點的數量和難民可用的資源）。第一個任務要求ICM-RUN設計一組標準和引數，並證明為何它們應該包含在危機分析中。

2.難民流動。最優難民遷移模型，包含問題中提到六個遷移路線的流程，需考慮運交通路線/可利用性、路線安全和國家資源能力。你可以包括不同路線、不同入境點、單個或多個入境點,甚至不同的國家。使用任務1中建立的衡量指標，確定難民的數量、以及適應他們移動所需的入境速度和地點。一定要證明新增到遷移中的任何新元素，解釋這些動力學模型的靈敏度。

3.危機動態分析。難民情況可以迅速改變。難民在不斷變化的政治和文化背景中，為自己和家庭尋求基本必需品。此外，為移動人口提供住宿、保護和食物的能力是動態的，因為最理想的目的地達到最大容量也最快，產生級聯效應，促使改變運動模式的引數。確定隨時間變化的環境因素，展示能力如何納入模型，解釋這些動態元素。什麼資源可以預先部署以及他們如何根據動態變化分配？哪種資源需優先考慮？如何把資源可用性和流動性整合到你的模型中？考慮政府和非政府機構的角色和資源（非政府組織）。如何將非政府組織的變化納入你的模型和策略？還要考慮其他難民目的地的加入，如加拿大、中國和美國。你的模型依舊適用於這些地區嗎？

4.支援難民模型的政策。由於你有一個工作模型，ICM-RUN被要求參加一個政策戰略會議，要求你的團隊根據模型撰寫報告，並提出一系列的政策，支援確保最優遷移模式的最優條件。聯合國委員會已經要求你優先考慮的難民和當地居民的健康和安全，你可以按自己想法，包括儘可能多的引數和考量，幫助報告政策計劃，謹記受影響國家的法律、文化約束，也考慮非政府組織角色和行為。

   5.外部事件。除了內生系統動態、外源性事件也極有可能發生，改變不穩定環境中的情況引數，例如，巴黎一次重大的恐怖襲擊，法國已經卷入敘利亞難民危機，導致許多歐洲國家對難民態度和政策的變化。事件也在當地居民間引發關注，例如，巴黎襲擊後，為捕獲可能的恐怖分子，比利時布魯塞爾進入戒嚴期。

a)在外生事件中，模型的什麼引數可能會改變或完全改變？

b)鄰國的什麼因素會對難民移動產生級聯效應？

c)你推薦的移民政策將如何設計來適應這類事件？

6.可擴充套件性。使用你的模型擴充套件到更大規模- 10倍規模。你的模型有不適應更大規模人口的特徵嗎？模型中哪些引數在危機範圍急劇擴大時，發生變化或成為無關緊要的引數？需要新增新的引數嗎？這如何提高解決難民安置所需的時間？如果解決難民收容問題明顯拖延，那麼在保證難民和當地居民的健康和安全方面，什麼樣的新問題可能出現？新的因素起作用的時間閾值是什麼？例如，需要採取什麼樣的政策處理問題，如疾病控制、生育和教育？

 

報告：聯合國難民委員會已經要求ICM-RUN團隊提供一份20頁的報告，考慮任務中給出的因素。每個團隊也應該寫1頁政策建議信，由聯合國祕書長和難民專員參閱。

ICM應提交1頁彙總表，1頁給聯合國的信，你的解決方案（不超過20頁）最多22頁。注意:附錄和參考文獻不計入22頁裡。

委員會提供以下網上可供參考的資料

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

http://www.iom.int/ http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90854 http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c4d6.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/world/migrants-refugees-europe-syria.html?_r=0 http://www.who.int/features/qa/88/en/

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/migration-and-health/migrant-health-in- the-european-region/migration-and-health-key-issues

https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/refugees-displaced-persons

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